When my middle son was 11 it was finally time to move from recreational soccer to club soccer.  He wanted to go for the top team and elected to try out for only that one (eleven-year-old logic at work). Fifty or sixty boys tried out, eighteen names were called, his was one of the names.  Forty disappointed boys headed home and the remaining players sat in the shade, waiting for the coach’s first words.

It doesn’t matter what the coach said that day, it only matters what happened over the next several months – these kids worked harder than they ever imagined in their walnut-sized brains.  For the eighteen boys remaining that Saturday, this was the team going forward and a lot was expected because losing was not an option.

The oilfield is about “right-sized”.  Our industry is highly efficient at slashing and burning during a downturn to rapidly get to whatever the new size needs to be.  It is harsh and a lot of people go home disappointed because they didn’t make the go-forward team, but those remaining are about to be worked like crazy because losing is not an option.  We already see materially scaled-back companies whose monthly revenues already pour profits to the bottom line.  We already see carefully vetted acquisitions underway to expand product offerings or improve manufacturing scale.  We see focused, funded management teams looking forward and building for tomorrow.

Like the frac stage count seen below, the past has faded into the background.  It isn’t coming back.  The focus is the future and the evidence is mounting for a return to growth.

Post script:  If I were doing this again, I’d steer the youngster to a less intense team and instead spend our free time camping and shooting and throwing rocks in a creek.  Things worked out fine as-is, but wouldn’t I rather climb a 14-er with him than stand on the sideline cheering?  Both are good, but one is better.