Richard and John review the challenge to US oilfield service firms in accommodating a significant increase in oilco activity in 2022. Topics addressed include market segmentation by operator size, contract duration requirements, risks from new technologies, and the potential for market consolidation.
Point-Counterpoint: Part 1
Richard and John preview the upcoming discussions between oil company managements planning to significantly increase capital spending in 2022 and possible pushback from investors. Topics addressed include long-term versus short-term demand expectations, “resilient” reserves and “bifurcated” investment groups.
The Long Run
Richard and John review the findings the EIA’s newly-released outlook for the global energy market to 2050 and discuss its implications for the oilfield equipment and service industry.
Global Oilfield Spending – Part 2
Richard and John identify next year’s market segment winners and losers and discuss the factors driving differences in the rate of revenue growth in 2022.
Global Oilfield Spending – Part 1
Richard and John identify 2021’s market segment winners and losers and discuss the factors driving the differences in revenue growth this year.
Forecasting Bias
Richard and John review Spock’s forecasting track record and some of the factors that lead to forecast errors by oilfield firms and investors.
Looking Ahead: Frac Activity
Richard and John discuss the 2022 outlook for US frac activity, including rig activity, DUC drawdown rate, and frac pricing.
Decisions, Decisions
Richard and John discuss how they expect US operators will decide to allocate next year’s free cash flow.
Looking Forward to 2022
Back to work – and just in time! Richard and John discuss the meaning of some of the surprising things that have happened in the oilpatch while they’ve been away from the podcast.
A Tale of Two Narratives
Richard and John go behind the looking glass to discuss how to reconcile rising oil prices with forecasts of sharply lower oil demand and calls to end oil exploration and new field development.