As US operators begin to behave more like majors - moving away from external financing toward generating free cash flow – does this mean the volatility of US drilling activity will decline? Richard and John discuss whether a less-risky US oilpatch will improve the value of oilfield firms.
Oilfield Spending in 2020
Richard and John discuss the outlook for oilfield spending in 2020 and contrast and compare the growth rates of various oilfield market segments. Other topics addressed include:
What the fastest- and slowest-growing market segments have in common.
What the three largest oilfield market segments will be in 2020
What the segments with the lowest and highest NAM exposure have in common
Nostradamus (The 2020 Edition)
Richard and John start the new year with their predictions of December 2021 futures prices for WTI and natural gas, the lowest spot oil price in 2020, the highest spot gas price in 2020, US crude oil production as of October 2021 and the outlook for frac service pricing.
Who will win bragging rights (or does Madame Marie tell fortunes better than they do?).
How Did We Do?
Richard and John review their year-ago predictions for oil price volatility, the December 2020 futures oil price, change in the ownership of Weatherford, per-well frac sand consumption, and the growth rate of the subsea tree market.
Who will claim the bragging rights? In addition, they nominate candidates for the 2019 Oilfield Word of the Year.
Next Year’s News
Richard and John list some of their “Ahead of the Bit” headlines they expect will describe the oilpatch in 2020.
Have We Turned A Corner?
Layoffs and closures continue to fill the news, but signs are appearing that would indicate the oil market is tightening. Richard and John discuss whether the oil and gas industry in North America is turning a corner. Other topics addressed include:
Can oil companies deliver on profitability?
If they do, when and how much will rig activity pick up?
‘Tis the Season: The Takings (not Santa) Clause
Some presidential candidates have proposed to ban fracking, if elected. Richard and John discuss how such proposals would fare considering the Fifth Amendment and the impact on state governments.
The Future of Oilfield R&D
Richard and John contrast and compare the structure and direction of oilfield R&D in a “peak oil demand” scenario relative to today’s industry.
O Canada: Part Deux
Although the weather is turning colder the banking sector appears to be warming up to Canadian oil service firms. What’s going on?
What I Learned This Week
Richard and John review the significant news of the past week and discuss the impact on the oilpatch. Topics include Apache’s 2020 capital budget, Schlumberger’s “deep review” of US land operations, and factors that could drive M&A activity by operators.